聂丽;颜蒙;安真;

• 1:吉林大学管理学院
• 2:新罕布什尔大学经济系
• 3:邮政科学研究规划院金融研究中心

摘要(Abstract)：

随着新兴市场在全球经济中的作用愈发重要,新兴市场经济周期对世界经济周期将产生更加显著的影响。面对新型区域经济合作组织的形成,新兴市场经济周期的解释机制也将更加复杂。为了更好地把握新兴市场经济周期的研究动态,在总结新兴市场经济周期特征事实的基础上,进一步归纳了现有文献对新兴市场经济周期产生机制的解释,并展望了关于新兴市场经济周期的未来研究方向。中国作为全球最大的新兴市场经济体,中国经济周期行为不仅有自身的特殊性,也存在与其他新兴市场经济周期的相似性,深入理解新兴市场经济周期对研究中国宏观经济周期有着极为有益的参考价值。

关键词(KeyWords)： 新兴市场;经济周期;特征事实;冲击类型

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家社会科学基金青年项目(20CJL006)

作者(Author): 聂丽;颜蒙;安真;

Email:

DOI: 10.16164/j.cnki.22-1062/c.2021.01.018

参考文献(References)：

• [1]LEWIS WA.The slowing down of the engine of growth[J].American Economic Review,1980,70(4):555-564．
• [2]HOFFMAISTER A W,PRADHAN M,SAMIEI H.Have North-South growth linkages changed?[J].World Development,1998,26(5):791-808．
• [3]KOUPARITSASM A.Evidence of the North-South business cycle[J].Economic Perspectives-Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago,2001,25(1):46-59．
• [4]HELBLING T,BEREZIN P,KOSE M A.Decoupling the train?Spillovers and cycles in the global economy[R].World Economic Outlook,2007:121-160．
• [5]KOSE M A,OTROK C,PRASAD E.How much decoupling?How much converging?[J].Finance and Development,2008,45(2):36-40．
• [6]DOOLEY M,HUTCHISON M.Transmission of the US subprime crisis to emerging markets:Evidence on the decouplingrecoupling hypothesis[J].Journal of International Money and Finance,2009,28(8):1331-1349．
• [7]NAOUSSIC F,TRIPIER F.Trend shocks and economic development[J].Journal of Development Economics,2013,103．
• [8]RAMEY G,RAMEY A.Cross-country evidence on the link between volatility and growth[J].American Economic Review,1995,5:1138-1151．
• [9]RAND J,TARP F.Business cycles in developing countries:are they different?[J].World Development,2002,30(12):2071-2088．
• [10]PALLAGES,ROBE M A.On the welfare cost of economic fluctuations in developing countries[J].International Economic Review,2003,44(2):677-698．
• [11]LOAYZA N V,RANCIERE R,SERVN L,et al.Macroeconomic volatility and welfare in developing countries:An introduction[J].The World Bank Economic Review,2007,21(3):343-357．
• [12]CLAESSENS S,KOSE M A,TERRONES M E.How do business and financial cycles interact?[J].Journal of International Economics,2012,87(1)．
• [13]CALDERN C,FUENTES J R.Have business cycles changed over the last two decades?An empirical investigation[J].Journal of Development Economics,2014,109:98-123．
• [14]MONTIEL P J.Macroeconomics in emerging markets[M].Cambridge University Press,2011:211-230．
• [15]AKINCI O,OLMSTEAD-RUMSEY J.How effective are macro prudential policies?An empirical investigation[J].Journal of Financial Intermediation,2018(33):33-57．
• [16]AGENOR P R,MCDERMOTT C J,PRASAD E S.Macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries:Some stylized facts[J].The World Bank Economic Review,2000,14(2)．
• [17]HODRICK R J,PRESCOTT E C.Postwar US business cycles:An empirical investigation[J].Journal of Money,Credit,and Banking,1997(1):1-16．
• [18]BAXTER M,KING R G.Measuring business cycles:Approximate band-pass filters for economic time series[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,1999,81(4):575-593．
• [19]CHRISTIANO L J,FITZGERALD T J.The band pass filter[J].International Economic Review,2003,44(2):435-465．
• [20]AGUIAR M,GOPINATH G.Emerging market business cycles:The cycle is the trend[J].Journal of Political Economy,2007,115(1)．
• [21]GARCIA-CICCO J,PANCRAZI R,URIBE M.Real business cycles in emerging countries?[J].American Economic Review,2010,100(5)．
• [22]URIBE M,SCHMITT-GROHS.Open economy macroeconomics[M].Princeton University Press,2017:178-231．
• [23]ALVAREZ-PARRA F,BRANDAO-MARQUES L,TOLEDO M.Durable goods,financial frictions,and business cycles in emerging economies[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2013,60(6)．
• [24]RESTREPO-ECHAVARRIA P.Macroeconomic volatility:The role of the informal economy[J].European Economic Review,2014,70．
• [25]HORVATH J.Business cycles,informal economy,and interest rates in emerging countries[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2018,55．
• [26]AKINCIO.Global financial conditions,country spreads and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries[J].Journal of International Economics,2013,91(2)．
• [27]隋建利,龚凯林．新兴市场国家存在信贷顺周期还是逆周期？[J]．经济管理,2018(8):18-40．
• [28]MELLER B,METIU N.The synchronization of credit cycles[J].Journal of Banking and Finance,2017(82):98-111．
• [29]NELSON C R,PLOSSER C R.Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series:some evidence and implications[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1982,10(2):139-162．
• [30]CHANGR,FERNNDEZ A.On the sources of aggregate fluctuations in emerging economies[J].International Economic Review,2013,54(4)．
• [31]MENDOZA EG.The terms of trade,the real exchange rate,and economic fluctuations[J].International Economic Review,1995(1):101-137．
• [32]KOSE M A.Explaining business cycles in small open economies:How much do world prices matter?[J].Journal of International Economics,2002,56(2):299-327．
• [33]SCHMITT-GROHS,URIBE M.How important are terms-of-trade shocks?[J].International Economic Review,2018,59(1)．
• [34]ZEEV N B,PAPPAE,VICONDOA A.Emerging economies business cycles:The role of commodity terms of trade news[J].Journal of International Economics,2017,108:368-376．
• [35]FERNNDEZ A,SCHMITT-GROHS,URIBE M.World shocks,world prices,and business cycles:An empirical investigation[J].Journal of International Economics,2017,108:S2-S14．
• [36]NEUMEYER P A,PERRI F.Business cycles in emerging economies:The role of interest rates[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2005,52(2):345-380．
• [37]URIBE M,YUE V Z.Country spreads and emerging countries:Who drives whom?[J].Journal of International Economics,2006,69(1):6-36．
• [38]AGUIAR M,GOPINATH G.The role of interest rates and productivity shocks in emerging market fluctuations[R].Central Bank of Chile,2007:345-367．
• [39]GRUSS B,MERTENS K.Regime switching interest rates and fluctuations in emerging markets[R].European University Institute,2009:1-21．
• [40]HORVATHJ,ROTHMANP.Mortgage spreads,house prices,and business cycles in emerging countries[R].2018．
• [41]BLOOM N.The impact of uncertainty shocks[J].Econometrica,2009,77(3)．
• [42]FERNNDEZ-VILLAVERDE J,GUERRN-QUINTANA P,RUBIO-RAMREZ J F,et al.Risk matters:The real effects of volatility shocks[J].American Economic Review,2011(6),101(6)．
• [43]SCHNEIDERF,BUEHN A.Shadow economies and corruption all over the world:Revised estimates for 120countries[J].Economics-The Open-Access,Open-Assessment E-Journal,2007,1(9):1-66．
• [44]FERNNDEZA,MEZA F.Informal employment and business cycles in emerging economies:The case of Mexico[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,2015,18(2):381-405．
• [45]BOZ E.Can miracles lead to crises?The role of optimism in emerging markets crises[J].Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,2009,41(6):1189-1215．
• [46]BOZ E,DAUDE C,DURDUC B.Emerging market business cycles:Learning about the trend[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2009,58(6/8)．
• [47]LAMAR,URRUTIA C.Employment protection and business cycles in emerging economies[J].IMF Working Paper,2011．
• [48]BOZ E,DURDU C B,LI N.Emerging market business cycles:the role of labor market frictions[J].Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,2015,47(1):31-72．
• [49]MAKOWIAK B.External shocks,US monetary policy and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2007,54(8):2512-2520．
• [50]DURDU C B,SAYAN S.Emerging market business cycles with remittance fluctuations[J].IMF Staff Papers,2010,57(2):303-325．
• [51]ALESSANDRI P,MUMTAZ H.Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks[J].Journal of Monetary Economic,2019,101:31-46．
• [52]HE Q,CHONG TTL,SHI K.What accounts for Chinese business cycle?[J].China Economic Review,2009,20(4):650-661．
• [53]CHANG C,CHEN K,WAGGONER D F,et al.Trends and cycles in China's macro economy[J].NBER Working Paper,2016,30(1):1-84.
• (1) IMF分类标准指出,人均国内生产总值较高的石油出口国家不会被划分为发达国家,根本原因在于其出口产品中大约70%是石油。但是,MSCI指数认为部分石油出口国家属于新兴市场经济体。
• (1)除尼日利亚外,其余11个国家均为主要的新兴市场国家。